Download Estimates

Download Estimates is a market insight toolset to watch for downloads trends in app stores. With Estimates, you can compare app downloads to the overall trend or get a bird's-eye view on app categories growth throughout markets.

Here is the list of countries and categories available on the Download Estimates at the moment. We will be expanding this list gradually.

About Downloads Index

We use a machine-learning algorithm to calculate Downloads Index — a normalized view of downloads for certain app store categories. You can also connect your App Store console account so you can visualize your app downloads data on the same chart and compare the overall category trend with your app growth.

Each category has its own Index distribution, and to get the most out of the Index we also add hand-picked Insights for several categories. We produce Insight in cooperation with our analytics team based on trends in mobile markets to help you better understand what caused changes in a category. You can catch the Insight right off the chart: 

In the Market view, you have all the available categories for analysis for a macro-level overview of the store trends. For each category, we’ve also added highlighting for minimum and maximum Index value, so you can easily get the notion of extreme points for the trend. Insights are also available on these charts. Same goes with the Country view, where we show the Index for the available countries.

How do Estimates work?

There are three major notions that Estimates are built on:

  1. We can only predict a trend based on downloads data, so we do not show the actual downloads number;
  2. Index is an indicator used for visualizing the growth, but it has little to no value as an absolute number;
  3. Categories trends can be compared by the trend’s movement, but the Index numeric value isn't comparable between categories.

How Estimates are calculated?

We genuinely built a predictive model based on several open-source datasets (like app rankings history) from app stores and our own downloads estimate calculations.

To achieve the final view of Estimates we:

  1. Get summarized data for top-15 apps from each category on a daily basis. The lists of top apps for each category are flexible, so we adapt our model based on rankings;
  2. Based on the summarized data, we use a machine-learning algorithm to identify the trend (e.g. lines on our charts) and seasonal factors;
  3. We transform Index value to 1000s for better visualization of trend and changes;
  4. After adjustments for seasonal factors, we compare the Index data to the Day 1 (March 1st, 2019) that is equal 1000.

How Estimates can help you:

  • Better positioning for your releases: catching downloads trends can help you find a better category, optimise your marketing spend and plan ROI-effective launches.
  • Compare your app growth against the market: catch for spikes and flaws to compare your growth towards macro-level changes.
  • Be informed on the market changes: our analytics team prepares handcrafted Insights based on our research and knowledge. You can use them to identify the reasons behind significant changes in market trends. 

F.A.Q.

How can I see my app data on the Index chart?
You have to add an app into your collection and set Sales integration.

The Index value for my category is zero. Why?
It might be due to recalculation — we recalculate the Index every day and compare it to the Day 1 (March 1st, 2019) to make it more precise.

My apps from Google Play aren’t in Estimates. Why?
Since Estimates are in Beta, we only have Estimates for Apple App Store apps. We’re working on adding Android apps as you read it.

I can’t see my category/country in Estimates. Why?
Since Estimates are in Beta, we only have Estimates for App Store apps from several countries and categories. 

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